Engineidle · awaiting next release

Trend Explorer · diagnostic analytics

Inspect the NEET 16–24 series from every analytical angle: rates, composition, cohorts, gender divergence, structural breaks, and a transparent next-quarter projection. Source: ONS LFS · release January to March 2026.

Headline rate
13.5%
1.01 million people · Jan-Mar 2026
QoQ
55k people
+5.7% · emerging confidence
Momentum regime
accelerating
12m +9.7%
Historical percentile
66th
-3.4 pp vs cycle peak
·

NEET rate (%) — People

Total, Unemployed and Inactive NEET (thousands)

Unemployed vs Inactive decomposition (stacked)

Movement vs 95% CI

Observed QoQ55k people
±95% CI±70k
Movement / CI ratio0.78×
Confidence bandemerging

Movement is below the 95% confidence interval but non-trivial. Monitor next release for persistence.

Anomaly markers (>2σ QoQ shifts)

3 anomaly quarters flagged: Jan-Mar 2021, Apr-Jun 2021, Oct-Dec 2022.

16–17 vs 18–24 cohort comparison (rate %)

16–17 rate
5.1%
18–24 rate
15.8%
Cohort gap
10.7 pp
Concentration
balanced

Cohort split is within historical norms; no age-specific anomaly.

Men vs Women divergence

Men YoY
+11.0%
Women YoY
+8.1%
Gap (W−M)
-94k people
Divergence
parallel

Both sexes moving roughly in parallel — pressure looks system-wide rather than sex-specific.

Pressure projection — next quarter

⚠ Pressure signal, not an official forecast. Do not cite as a prediction of the next ONS release.

Point estimate
1.03 million people
95% PI lower
968k people
95% PI upper
1.09 million people
Method
naive drift

Last observation + median QoQ drift over 7 recent deltas; PI from std of those deltas.

Release comparison · latest vs previous publication

Bars show how the latest release (JM26) differs from the previous release (OD25) for each overlapping quarter.